Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Adoption

As of July 2024, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) had transitioned from a niche alternative to a cornerstone in the aviation industry’s decarbonization strategy. Although still representing a small percentage of total jet fuel consumption globally, SAF adoption had seen significant acceleration due to regulatory incentives, airline commitments, and expanding production capacity.

 Definition and Types of SAF

Sustainable Aviation Fuel refers to renewable or synthetic alternatives to traditional Jet-A or Jet A-1 fuels. To be considered SAF, the fuel must meet performance and safety criteria set by ASTM D7566, allowing it to be blended with petroleum-based jet fuel.

• Common SAF feedstocks include:
• Used cooking oil (UCO)
• Tallow (animal fats)
• Agricultural waste
• Municipal solid waste (MSW)
• Carbon-captured Power-to-Liquid (PtL) synthetic fuels

As of mid-2024, HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) was the dominant production method, accounting for over 85% of global SAF due to its maturity and feedstock availability. Other pathways included Fischer-Tropsch (FT) and Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) technologies.

Airline Integration and Airport Infrastructure

By July 2024, more than 70 airlines had incorporated SAF into their fuel mix. Key adopters included:

• Kenya Airways: In May 2023, Kenya Airways became the first African airline to use SAF for a long-haul flight, operating a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner from Nairobi to Amsterdam using a mix of Jet A1 fuel and Eni Biojet, provided by Eni Sustainable Mobility. This was part of the SkyTeam Sustainable Flight Challenge. The airline is working with Eni to further integrate SAF for flights out of Kenya, positioning itself as a pioneer in the region.
• EgyptAir: While Egypt is sometimes considered part of the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, it’s relevant to note that EgyptAir operated its first SAF-powered commercial flight in 2022, a Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner from Paris to Sharm El Sheikh for the COP27 conference. This marked a significant step in SAF adoption in the African context.

Policy and Incentives

Governments and aviation regulators accelerated SAF deployment by setting mandates and offering financial support:

EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation legislation required 2% SAF blending by 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030.

ICAO ACT-SAF Programme: Kenya participates in the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Assistance, Capacity-building, and Training for SAF (ACT-SAF) programme, launched in June 2022, which supports SAF policy development, feedstock studies, and capacity building for production and certification.

Environmental Benefits

SAF’s primary appeal is its ability to cut carbon emissions. Depending on how it’s made, SAF can reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by 50% to 80%. Power-to-Liquid fuels have shown potential for up to 90% reductions, though they remain costly.

A 2024 study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) showed HEFA-derived SAF from waste oils reduces emissions by about 65%. Additionally, SAF use cuts particulate matter and sulfur oxides, improving local air quality.

Economic and Scalability Challenges

Despite strong environmental credentials, SAF still faces high costs and scaling issues. As of 2024, SAF prices ranged between $3.50 and $6.00 per gallon, compared to about $2.00–$2.50 for fossil jet fuel. This gap is especially problematic for budget carriers and airlines in developing markets.

Feedstock limitations—especially for HEFA—restrict volume, and concerns about land use have prevented widescale agricultural SAF cultivation. Meanwhile, synthetic fuels like PtL are still expensive due to the need for green hydrogen and carbon capture.

Infrastructure is another limiting factor: only about 15 airports globally had SAF distribution pipelines, including Oslo, Heathrow, SFO, and LAX. Most SAF blending still occurs offsite.

Innovation and Market Signals

The SAF sector is responding with new technologies and platforms:

1. Growing Interest and Policy Advocacy: There is increasing momentum for SAF adoption in Kenya, driven by global environmental pressures and net-zero commitments. Posts on X indicate advocacy for a 10% SAF mandate by 2030 in Kenya’s Draft Energy Biofuels Regulations 2025, suggesting a push to position Kenya as a first-mover in Africa’s SAF market. This reflects a proactive policy environment aiming to align with global sustainability goals.
2. Production and Supply Challenges: Globally, SAF production is growing but remains limited. In 2024, SAF accounted for only 0.3% of global jet fuel production, with volumes reaching 1 million tonnes, doubling from 2023 but falling short of earlier projections. In Kenya, specific SAF production data is scarce, but the global trend suggests limited local production capacity. Infrastructure limitations and high production costs due to low economies of scale are significant barriers.
3. Feedstock Availability: Kenya has potential for SAF production due to its biomass feedstock availability, such as agricultural residues, used cooking oil, and municipal waste. These resources align with advanced SAF production technologies like Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA). However, scaling production requires investment in refining infrastructure and supportive policies.
4. Market Opportunities: The global SAF market is projected to grow from USD 2.06 billion in 2025 to USD 25.62 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 65.5%. Kenya could tap into this by leveraging its renewable energy expertise, as seen in its robust solar and biomass sectors. The country’s tea industry and off-grid solar markets demonstrate a capacity for integrating renewable solutions, which could extend to SAF.
5. Policy and Investment Needs: For SAF to gain traction in Kenya, government incentives and clear policies are critical. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) emphasizes the need for a global SAF accounting framework to ensure transparency and prevent double-counting of environmental benefits. In Kenya, public support is strong, with 86% of travelers favoring government incentives for SAF production. Without subsidies or tax credits, high SAF costs could deter adoption.
6. Regional Context: Kenya risks losing a competitive edge to countries like Ethiopia, which is also pursuing SAF leadership in Africa. Early adoption of SAF mandates and investment in production facilities could position Kenya as a regional hub, especially given its status as a leading economy in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Outlook

As of July 2024, Sustainable Aviation Fuel was no longer a novelty. It had become a central part of most airlines’ carbon reduction strategies. The road ahead involves scaling up production, closing the cost gap, and ensuring that SAF becomes accessible globally.

While obstacles remain, the trajectory is clear: SAF is set to play a major role in the aviation industry’s race to net zero.